Realized GARCH: A Joint Model for Returns and Realized Measures of Volatility∗

نویسندگان

  • Peter Reinhard Hansen
  • Zhuo Huang
  • Howard Howan Shek
  • Giampiero Gallo
  • Asger Lunde
چکیده

We introduce a new framework, Realized GARCH, for the joint modeling of returns and realized measures of volatility. A key feature is a measurement equation that relates the realized measure to the conditional variance of returns. The measurement equation facilitates a simple modeling of the dependence between returns and future volatility. Realized GARCH models with a linear or log-linear speci cation have many attractive features. They are parsimonious, simple to estimate, and imply an ARMA structure for the conditional variance and the realized measure. An empirical application with DJIA stocks and an exchange traded index fund shows that a simple Realized GARCH structure leads to substantial improvements in the empirical t over standard GARCH models that only use daily returns.

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تاریخ انتشار 2010